User blog:Astrogamer/Road to E3 2018 - First Party Predictions

With E3 being less than a week away, let's discuss what Nintendo could directly bring to the table. For starters, let's discuss some ground rules. First, this one is only discuss titles published by Nintendo. It doesn't include any localizations or distributions for third parties. Secondly, this will focus on announcements Nintendo could make at E3 not ones we know so, we'll will be ignoring the ARMS/ Mario Kart team, EPD Tokyo team, Splatoon team and the Nintendo Labo team in EPD and the partners HAL Laboratory (Kirby), Intelligent Systems (WarioWare and Fire Emblem). PlatinumGames (Bayonetta), Grezzo (Luigi's Mansion remake), indieszero (Sushi Striker), Good-Feel (Yoshi Switch), Vanpool (Dillon), Game Freak (Pokemon), and Camelot (Mario Tennis). Thirdly, we'll be ignoring major third parties like Koei Tecmo and Bandai Namco since they are so big that they may not be in partnership with Nintendo. Any third party games will be predicted in the final part next week.

Nintendo EPD
There are 10 development teams in Nintendo EPD though 2 of them are mostly involved with external production. That leaves 8 and of these 8, the Super Mario Odyssey (EPD8?), Mario Kart/ ARMS (EPD9) and the Nintendo Labo (EPD4?) have just finished games so, they are likely not ready to even tease anything. Additionally, Yoshio Sakamoto's team is likely too busy with WarioWare to have their next big title ready for E3 though if they are working on another 2D Metroid with an outside company like Samus Returns, they could have a teaser at E3 though it seems much more like a Nintendo Direct reveal. I would put this as a 10% chance.

I've also neglected the Splatoon team though that is because that production group also holds the separate Animal Crossing team. While it has be 3 years since their last full title, I'm not sure if Animal Crossing Switch will release this fall. It feels like we've heard a few more rumblings if it was coming so soon. Instead, I peg it as a late Spring release, being the major release for that quarter. It could still have a short teaser since that release would put it around next year's E3 but, it isn't too likely. I would put this as a 30% chance.

The next major team is the Zelda team. While the next big Zelda game is pretty likely to be years away, that does not exclude a remake or a smaller scale Zelda. The last director of a smaller Zelda game worked on 1-2-Switch so he may have joined the Labo team but, that does not stop someone new from becoming the director of such a game (nor does it stop him from directing again since 1-2-Switch was over 1 year ago now). Adjusting to HD hardware might move such a title to early 2019. That said, I would think this will get a trailer. For a remake, I would put it as 20% for a remake and a 40% for a new 2D Zelda.

For the 2D Mario / Pikmin team, 2D Mario seems like a bigger priority though I have noticed that a few developers from Pikmin have not been involved with anything major since Pikmin 3 so, a small team could be working on the 4th entry. That said, there have been rumors about a deluxe version of New Super Mario Bros. U so, I feel they announce that here. So NSMBU Deluxe has a 90% chance of appearing and Pikmin 4 has a 30% chance.

The next major team is the Star Fox Zero team though I expect they worked on the Labo Robot Kit. That said they could work on a new Vitei game or a similar company like with Tank Troopers. I'd say it would be 10% chance for a game from them.

Other Nintendo teams
The main Nintendo studios outside of EPD are Retro Studios, Monolith Soft, Nd Cube and NST. For Retro Studios, many rumors have come out about a Star Fox racing game. While I'm unsure if these rumors are true, I would expect a Retro Studios game to be announced at E3 especially if it is releasing in the fiscal year. I expect a 90% chance of a Retro game appearing and a 60% chance for that Star Fox racing game being real.

For Monolith Soft, it appears that they have only begun hiring for their next games be it the Fantasy Action RPG they've teased, Xenoblade 3 or Xenoblade X 2. With the Xenoblade Chronicles 2 DLC still going on, it is pretty safe to say that they will not appear at E3. That said, they mentioned wanting to make a port of Xenoblade Chronicles X so that could happen. I feel that game has a 30% chance of appearing at E3 though it is much more likely to be a Nintendo Direct game.

For Nd Cube, they mostly work on party games. They did assist on Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp so I think a part of their studio is working on Animal Crossing Switch. The main team still will be working on Mario Party or a similar game to Wii Party. I'd expect the new Wii Party game first since that is the series with more expectation. It could be revealed at E3 but, it seems to casual for the audience. It'd expect that game to release in October or so witha 50% of appearing at E3.

For NST, they are a pretty small team so, they are pretty unlikely to have their own independent game yet. They last worked on Snipperclips. I expect if they do have a title out this year, it's helping a bigger dev and would likely be announced in a Direct later this year.

Second Parties
For this part, I'll only discuss the most likely of them. The biggest is Next Level Games who were thought to be making Luigi's Mansion until a rating revealed that Grezzo was working on it. That means this will be the second year since Federation Force and ample time to start their next game. Since Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon was such a success, we could see them making it a trilogy. Another option is reviving a classic Nintendo series like they did with Punch-Out. There have been rumors of a new Wave Race so, this could be their next project. That said, with such a busy E3, if they aren't that far on the project, whatever game they are working on could be pushed to a winter reveal. I'll put the chance of this game at 40%.

The next topic is the Paper Mario team at Intelligent Systems. It has been 2 years since Color Splash so, we could see a new game from them. I think they are putting most of their efforts towards Fire Emblem so that team is probably too light and only in the early stages of development. Basically 0% chance of them showing a game that isn't Fire Emblem.

Skip is another notable partner. I doubt Nintendo has dropped them from Chibi-Robo Zip Lash! mediocre performance though I do think that game marked the hibernation for the Chibi-Robo series. Instead, I expect they are working with Tanabe on a new IP or reviving an old one. It's probably too soon for an E3 reveal but, it could be revealed in a Nintendo Direct later this year. Going to guess a 10% chance of appearing though it could be a surprise Treehouse reveal.

With that, we've discussed the major first party efforts. Next week, we'll discuss the expected major third party reveals and big rumors.